The UFC returns to Chile when two of the best grapplers in the welterweight division battle it out in the main event of the evening. This post will give you the most plausible outcomes of the fights, the best bets to make on sports betting sites such as Bovada, and the most optimal lineup for DraftKings.
In this guide I will be giving my predictions on who will win the fight as well as the type of bet that you should consider placing.
Claudio “El Nino” Puelles (+245) vs. Felipe Silva (-315)
The early prelims kickoff with two prospects looking to get back ing the win column. Claudio Puelles became the runner-up for the The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 3 when he lost by TKO to Martin Bravo. Meanwhile, Felipe Silva is attempting to come back from a devastating first round knockout by the hands of Mairbek Taisumov. Puelles is a very well-rounded fighter who has a decent stand-up and grappling game. His problems lie on the feet, however, as he was beaten in his last fight due to constant pressure and due to his constant reaching with his lead hand which left him open to counter hooks from his opponent. Silva has shown a great striking game that includes pressuring his opponent with combinations that I see giving him a clear advantage in this fight. I think the only way Puelles wins is by successfully grappling Silva to the mat, but he needs to do so before he is taken out on the feet.
Bet to make: Silva is my pick to win but since he yields so little I would consider parlaying him with another bet or bets.
Henry “Bure” Briones (+260) vs. Frankie Saenz (-340)
Veteran Frankie Saenz goes up against Henry Briones in a fight that both fighters need to win. Briones is currently on a three fight losing streak having loss by knockout, submission, and decision. Frankie Saenz just snapped his three fight losing streak in his last fight when he won by split-decision against Merab Dvalishvili. Saenz’s head movement will help him greatly in this fight since Briones tends to keep his on the center line thus rendering him defenseless against counters. The grappling is also a clear win for Saenz because of his NCAA Division I wrestling skills.
Bet to make: I pick Saenz to win this one. Since he is a pretty big favorite then I would probably parlay him with another bet or bets.
Enrique “El Fuerte” Barzola (-225) vs. Brandon “Killer B” Davis (+175)
These two featherweights clash in what could be a potential fight of the night. Enrique Barzola edged out a decision win over Matt Bessette in his last fight while Brandon Davis did the same against Steven Peterson. This is a really close fight that will really test each fighter’s striking. Davis likes to go full speed from the very beginning which will likely see him win the early portion of the fight. But over time he has fatigued in the latter half of the fight which will see Barzol winning that portion of the fight.
Bet to make: I would recommend betting on nobody in this fight since it is such a close fight. If you really wanted to roll the dice though then I would pick the underdog in Brandon Davis.
Gabriel “Moggly” Benitez (-205) vs. Humberto Bandenay (+165)
Here we have a toss-up of a fight between Gabriel Benitez and Humberto Bandenay. Benitez dominated entertaining prospect Jason Knight in his last fight to win a decision while Bandenay shocked everyone with his devastating first round knockout win over The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 3 winner Martin Bravo. Benitez’s standup is superb and is complimented by his grappling skills. Not much is known on Bandenay since his only UFC fight lasted only 15 seconds.
Bet to make: I would stay away from this one due to the lack of information on Humberto Bandenay.
Poliano Botelho (-165) vs. Syuri Kondo (+135)
The women get a chance to shine as Poliano Botelho faces Syuri Kondo. Both Botelho and Kondo were able to get decision wins in their last fights in completely different ways. Botelho won by defending her opponent’s takedown while landing the occasional elbow. Kondo won her fight by a close split decision when she stood and traded strikes with her opponent. Both fighters have had only won fight in the UFC with very little being shown of their skills.
Bet to make: I would stay away from this fight as well due to the lack of information regarding how well each fighter would fare against one another.
Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (+115) vs. Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (-145)
Hot prospect Brandon Moreno returns when he takes on his The Ultimate Fighter fellow competitor Alexandre Pantoja. This is an interesting fight as both fighters already fought each other on The Ultimate Fighter in what was a war as both guys threw bombs against each other. Pantoja made a calculated move however and took Moreno down to submit him. I think this fight will go down differently though since Moreno has shown some decent cardio in his recent five-round fight against Sergio Pettis while Pantoja’s cardio was the reason he lost against Dustin Ortiz in his last bout. If Moreno can keep this fight standing then I see him getting the win
Bet to make: I believe the bet to make is Moreno getting the win in this fight.
Zak Cummins (-200) vs. Michel “Tractor” Prazeres (+160)
We got two submission specialists in this fight as Zak Cummins fights Michel Prazeres in the featured bout of the prelims. Cummins’ last fight was more than a year ago against Nathan Coy where he put him to sleep with a guillotine choke in the first round. Prazeres last won his fight a couple of months ago when he beat Desmond Green by decision. Although both guys have great submission games, both guys have shown some great striking that will make this an interesting fight. Prazeres has shown little holes in his game other than his cardio. However, I feel his cardio will be fixed in this fight since he is moving up in weight thus eliminating a hard weight cut that he normally went through. Add on to the fact that Cummins is coming off a long layoff and I see Prazeres taking this thing.
Bet to make: Prazeres is my pick to win this fight and the bet to make.
Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (-210) vs. Chad “The Disciple” Laprise (+170)
The main card kicks off with two welterweights with high finishing rates squaring off against each other. Vicente Luque just had an impressive performance against Niko Price where he was able to drop his opponent and then lock in his signature D’arce choke for the win. Chad Laprise was able to overcome adversity in his last battle where he was able to survive being dropped by Galore Bofando and then went on to mount his opponent to achieve his TKO victory. I feel that Laprise will be able to keep this fight standing with his wrestling and will chase the knockout win. Luque’s striking is very technical and effective at a high level. However, when he is pressured by a fighter like Laprise with knockout power then he may be in for a bad night.
Bet to make: I pick Laprise to win and since he is the underdog I would recommend betting on him to win.
Veronica Macedo (+235) vs. Andrea “KGB” Lee (-305)
Veronica Macedo takes on UFC newcomer Andrea Lee in this women’s flyweight bout. Macedo last competed against Ashlee Evans-Smith in a losing effort where she was TKO’d in the third round. Andrea Lee has little info to go on for her making this a hard fight to put money on.
Bet to make: Once again we will be holding our money and not placing a bet on this fight since there is very little information to help us make an accurate prediction.
Diego “Pitbull” Rivas (-165) vs. Guido “Ninja” Cannetti (+135)
Two exciting fighters go head to head in this potential fight of the night. Diego Rivas put up a good fight in his most recent bout but was unable to overcome his opponent’s height and reach advantage. Guido Cannetti was landing some bombs on his last opponent but was ultimately caught in a triangle choke in the very first round. Both fighters are very skillful but I believe that Rivas is the more skillful opponent who has only one loss on his record due to fighting an opponent with a lengthier frame to his. Since he will be the slightly bigger man in this fight I have to go with him.
Bet to make: Rivas is the favorite to win so parlaying him with another bet or bets seems wise.
Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier (+190) vs. Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes (-240)
Here we have the biggest men on the card with Jared Cannonier going up against Dominick Reyes. Cannonier was unable to beat Jan Blachowicz in his last fight due to being unable to get past the jab while also getting taken down during the fight. Dominick Reyes, however, had back-to-back impressive wins with two first round finishes. Reyes is great at finishing his opponents but Cannonier is an animal that is hard to finish. Reyes also has a thinner frame than Cannonier’s hulking physique. Reyes has never lost but was eating some shots on the feet in his last fight. If he eats those same shots from Cannonier in this fight then you can expect for his lights to go out quick.
Bet to make: Jared Cannonier is a decent bet to make.
Alexa Grasso (+475) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-750)
The Ultimate Fighter 23 winner Tatiana Suarez returns to fight Alexa Grasso in this main card bout. Grasso was able to edge out a decision victory against Randa Markos in her last bout while Tatiana Suarez was able to dominate her last opponent by taking her down and grinding her for a clear decision victory. Grasso has great boxing that will give Suarez a run for her money but may have problems when it comes to Suarez’s wrestling. Usually the grappler wins in these striker vs. grappler matchups and Suarez is clearly the grappler in this fight. Suarez is the big favorite here for a reason and I say she is the pick to make.
Bet to make: Suarez is the huge favorite in this fight when it comes to the odds. I would consider not taking this bet at all since the yield is so little for the risk even if you parlay it with another bet or bets.
Demian Maia (+450) vs. Kamaru “Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (-700)
Finally we have the main event where Jiu-Jitsu legend Demian Maia takes on extremely talented wrestler Kamaru Usman. Maia last lost two back-to-back decisions to Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington while Usman is on an 11 fight win streak. Usman has high level wrestling that will more than likely keep this fight standing for him to take apart Maia on the feet. Maia is known as a pure grappler who doesn’t plan on keeping the fight standing long. However, Usman is great at both areas and will chase the knockout against one of the legends of this sport.
Bet to make: Usman is the pick to make here but since he is the biggest favorite on this card, I would suggest not picking him since to reward is so little to what is being risked even with a parlay. However, I would recommend checking out the odds of him getting the knockout/technical knockout victory whenever the numbers come out. That may be the best bet to place if they provide a decent return. (note that you cannot parlay methods of victory)
In this guide I will be going over each fighter on the card and giving my predictions on who you should consider for your lineup. I recommend doing head-to-head competitions on DraftKings due to your higher chance of winning. In tournaments there are multiple ties that reduce the grand prize into a very small fraction of what it originally was. Meanwhile in head-to-head you get 80% in profit of what you bet if you win.
Claudio “El Nino” Puelles ($6,800) vs. Felipe Silva ($9,400)
Felipe Silva is my pick to win this fight. He has a high finishing rate so he would be an excellent pick to get a some decent points. He is very pricey but for a good reason and I think he is well worth the price when paired with the right lineup.
Draft: Felipe Silva ($9,400)
Henry “Bure” Briones ($7,100) vs. Frankie Saenz ($9,100)
I picked Frankie Saenz to win this one but he has a low finishing rate. He can get us some points but for his price I think it is best we avoid him.
Enrique “El Fuerte” Barzola ($8,900) vs. Brandon “Killer B” Davis ($7,300)
This was too close of a call to risk your lineup on. If you had to money to spend and wanted to risk it then Brandon Davis is the pick to make. However, my lineup will do just fine without him.
Gabriel “Moggly” Benitez ($8,500) vs. Humberto Bandenay ($7,700)
I did not have a prediction for this fight due to the lack of information on Humberto Bandenay. So I would steer clear from picking either of these two unless you like bets on coin flips.
Poliano Betelho ($8,700) vs. Syuri Kondo ($7,500)
Just like the last fight, I would stay away from these two due to the lack of information on Syuri Kondo. Also, women fights tend to have a lower chance of a finish which can hurt your lineup when it comes to points.
Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno ($8,000) vs. Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja ($8,200)
Brandon Moreno is my pick to win this and could be a decent draft for our lineup. However, seeing that he lost his last fight against Alexandre Pantoja makes me skeptical to pick him for my lineup. Also it would be hard to get the finish against a guy like Pantoja.
Zak Cummins ($8,400) vs. Michel “Tractor” Prazeres ($7,800)
I picked Michel Prazeres to win this fight and I believe he has a decent chance at getting a submission victory in this bout. His low price makes him an even better fighter to take as well.
Draft: Michel Prazeres ($7,800)
Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque ($8,800) vs. Chad “The Disciple” Laprise ($7,400)
Chad Laprise has a pretty decent finishing rate and is also my pick to win this fight. Add that with the sight of his price tag and he is a great addition to our lineups.
Draft: Chad Laprise ($7,400)
Veronica Macedo ($7,000) vs. Andrea “KGB” Lee ($9,200)
Again, no prediction was made for this fight due to lack of information on one of the fighters. Steer clear of this one.
Diego “Pitbull” Rivas ($8,600) vs. Guido “Ninja” Cannetti ($7,600)
Diego Rivas is my pick to win this and has also a decent submission game. Guido Cannetti’s losses have all come by submission. I expect Rivas to get the finish thus yielding a decent amount of points.
Draft: Diego Rivas ($8,600)
Jared “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier ($7,200) vs. Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes ($9,000)
It is hard to not draft the biggest men on the card since they are the most likely to get the finish. I predict Jared Cannonnier to get the knockout win in this fight and since he is incredibly cheap I recommend picking him.
Draft: Jared Cannonier ($7,200)
Alexa Grasso ($6,900) vs. Tatiana Suarez ($9,300)
Tatiana Suarez is the huge favorite to win this (my pick as well) and her price tag definitely shows it. She is just too pricey for what may be a decision victory for her. I say pass on drafting her.
Demian Maia ($6,700) vs. Kamaru “Nigerian Nightmare” Usman ($9,500)
I almost always recommend drafting the winner of the main event or title fights since they have five rounds to rack up points and also a higher chance of a finish. Kamaru Usman is my pick to win this but this could end up blowing up in my face. If this becomes a grappling snoozefest that goes the distance then I will have wasted my money on little points. So we are hoping that Usman can light up Demian Maia on the feet and potentially get the finish to aid our lineups.
Draft: Kamaru Usman ($9,500)
Here is the final lineup I have created and will use for my DraftKings competition. I recommend doing your own research and doing a lineup that is best for you. You can copy and paste my lineup if you choose or make slight adjustments to what you think will happen. Be sure to check out the Betting and DraftKings report in the days that follow this UFC event to see how this guide played out and what were winners and losers on this lineup.
- Kamaru Usman ($9,500)
- Felipe Silva ($9,400)
- Diego Rivas ($8,600)
- Michel Prazeres ($7,800)
- Chad Laprise ($7,400)
- Jared Cannonier ($7,200)